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通过1963~2008年新疆玉龙喀什河同古孜洛克水文站实测气象、水文资料研究发现,玉龙喀什河径流、洪峰流量补给来源于昆仑山区冰川(雪)融水、降水。流域内受全球气候变暖的影响,冰川(雪)消融速度加快,冰川面积减少,水文要素也发生着较大变化,特别是洪水要素变化明显。玉龙喀什河流域表代站的年平均气温、年最高气温从80年代以后呈逐年上升的变化趋势,年最大洪峰流量的变化幅度相对变小,洪水主要集中在7月、8月。通过研究揭示了流域内洪水成因、变化趋势,将对防洪抗旱、防害减灾,合理开发利用水资源具有参考作用。
The meteorological and hydrological data of Kashi River and Kiziloko Hydrological Station from 1963 to 2008 in Kashgar, Xinjiang found that the runoff and flood discharge from Kashgar River in the Yulong River came from melting and precipitation of glacier (snow) in the Kunlun Mountains. Due to the global warming in glaciers, glaciers (snow) have been accelerated, the area of glaciers has been reduced, and hydrological factors have also changed greatly. In particular, changes in flood elements have been notable changes. Yulong Kashi River table generation stations on behalf of the average annual temperature, the annual maximum temperature from the 1980s showed a rising trend year by year, the annual maximum peak discharge changes relatively smaller, the flood mainly concentrated in July and August. Through the study reveals the causes and trends of flood in the basin, will have a reference role in flood control and drought relief, disaster prevention and mitigation, rational development and utilization of water resources.