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根据比较优势调整磷化工产品贸易结构这一思路,首先运用散点图、核密度曲线两种统计方法分析了1997—2009年我国磷化工产品贸易结构和比较优势的变化,然后用相对变动的RSCA指数和世界磷化工产品进口需求的平均增长率的二维分析框架分析了我国磷化工出口产品比较优势与世界需求动态的整合情况。研究显示:我国磷化工产品贸易结构没有发生大的变动,比较优势没有很明显的流动性;出口专业化越来越集中在具有比较优势的磷化工产品上,出口贸易专业化程度略微增加;我国磷化工产品贸易模式的不整合率升高。相对于世界进口需求而言,我国磷化工对外贸易的调整效率是下降的。
According to the comparative advantage of adjusting the trade structure of phosphorus chemical products, this paper first analyzes the changes of the trade structure and comparative advantages of China’s phosphorus chemical products from 1997 to 2009 by using the statistical methods of scatter plot and nuclear density curve, and then uses the relative change of RSCA Index and world phosphorus chemical products import demand average growth rate of two-dimensional analysis of the framework analysis of China’s exports of phosphorus products, comparative advantage and world demand dynamic integration. The research shows that there is no big change in the trade structure of China’s phosphorus chemical products and the comparative advantage has no obvious liquidity. The export specialization is more and more concentrated on the phosphorus chemical products with comparative advantages and the degree of specialization in export trade slightly increases. The rate of unconformity of the trade pattern of phosphorus chemical products will increase. Compared with the world’s import demand, the efficiency of the adjustment of foreign trade in China’s phosphorus chemical industry is declining.