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稳定播种面积对于保障粮食安全具有重要意义,而粮食价格是影响粮食播种面积的重要因素。以稻谷、小麦和玉米为例,采用Nerlove模型对2004年~2014年江苏省、安徽省粮食价格波动对粮食播种面积的影响进行实证分析。结果表明:粮食价格对两省的粮食播种面积均具有正向作用,且两省的粮食长期价格弹性均大于短期价格弹性。其中,处于发达地区的江苏省长期价格弹性和短期价格弹性均小于处于发展中地区的安徽省。基于实证分析结果,提出了相关对策建议。
Stable planting area is of great significance for ensuring food security, while grain prices are an important factor affecting the sown area of grain. Taking rice, wheat and corn as examples, this paper uses Nerlove model to analyze the influence of food price fluctuation on grain sown area in Jiangsu Province and Anhui Province from 2004 to 2014. The results show that grain prices have a positive effect on the sown area of grain in both provinces, and the long-term price elasticity of grain in both provinces is greater than the short-term price elasticity. Among them, long-term price elasticity and short-term price elasticity of Jiangsu Province in developed areas are less than those in developing regions of Anhui Province. Based on the results of empirical analysis, some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.