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国际金融危机愈演愈烈,贸易保护主义暗潮涌动,政府当何去何从?文章在人工神经网络和系统仿真技术支持下模拟出双寡头企业的市场演化,从多个视角对两大传统贸易保护政策工具——关税和配额的经济效应进行了检验。结果表明:随着进口限制越发严格,进口商品和国货价格同时上升,消费者剩余明显下降,国内产业利润有所提高,国外利润显著减少,世界总福利因此大幅下降,但伴随国内外产品质量趋同,进口限制对世界总福利的损害有所降低。另外,当国货质量较低时,国内总福利随配额的减少而降低;当国货质量较高时,国内总福利随配额的减少而提高。
The international financial crisis is fiercer and the undercurrent of trade protectionism surges and the government go from here. The article simulates the market evolution of duopoly enterprises with the support of artificial neural networks and system simulation technology, and analyzes the two traditional trade protection policy tools from multiple perspectives - The economic effects of tariffs and quotas were tested. The results show that as the import restrictions become more and more strict, the prices of imported goods and domestic products rise at the same time, the consumer surplus declines obviously, the profits of domestic industries increase, the profits abroad remarkably decrease and the total welfare in the world drops sharply. However, with the convergence of domestic and international product quality The import restrictions have lessened the damage to the total world welfare. In addition, when the quality of domestic products is low, the total domestic welfare decreases as the quota decreases. When the quality of domestic products is high, the total domestic welfare increases with the reduction of quotas.