升值压力、汇率预期与中美贸易余额

• 作 者: 蔡浩仪 姜大伟
• 机 构: 中国银行,中国金融学会,对外经济贸易大学,对外经济贸易大学金融学院,
• 出 处: 亚太经济
• 发表日期: 2011年02期
• 关键词: 贸易余额 中美贸易顺差 贸易收支 升值预期 汇率升值 升值压力 人民币升值 外汇储备 协整方程 人民币汇率

汇率升值对贸易收支的影响效果会因相应的升值预期变化而抵消,所以在升值预期持续存在的条件下,单纯的升值并不能平衡贸易收支。汇率预期受升值压力影响,而中美贸易顺差的扩大是升值压力的重要来源,从而形成一种经济循环:中美贸易顺差增加升值压力,升值压力加强升值预期,升值预期进一步扩大贸易顺差。

The effect of appreciation of the exchange rate on the trade balance will be offset by the expected change in the corresponding appreciation. Therefore, under the condition that the appreciation is expected to continue, a simple appreciation will not balance the trade balance. The exchange rate is expected to be affected by the pressure of appreciation. The expansion of Sino-U.S. trade surplus is an important source of pressure for appreciation, thus forming an economic cycle: the Sino-U.S. trade surplus increases pressure to appreciate. Appreciation pressures strengthen expectations of appreciation, and appreciation is expected to further increase the trade surplus.