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论文利用9省1 504个农户调研数据,实证检验了新一轮集体林改后林地面积增加对农户营林积极性的因果效应。考虑到农户对林地经营面积决策的内生性问题,采用倾向值匹配方法对选择性偏差进行控制。匹配后,处理组和控制组在多个标准上均通过了平衡性检验。结果显示,林地面积增加确实促进了农户营林积极性的提高,但这是一个缓慢的动态调整过程。其中,资本投入强度在2010年以后才逐步表现为显著增加,增长率约为25%~27%,2013年进一步强化为28%~34%。资本投入强度的增加主要是由化肥和农药投入增加引起的,对种苗的投入强度并没有显著改善。这种差异说明,新一轮林改提高了农户的森林经营和管护积极性,但对造林行为的影响有限。同时农户并没有因为林地面积增加而显著提高劳动力的投入强度。这种资本对劳动的替代与农户的非农就业行为密切相关。
Based on the survey data of 1 504 households in nine provinces, the paper empirically tests the causal effect of the increase of forest area on farmers’ forest enthusiasm after a new round of collective forest reform. Taking into account endogenous problems of farmers’ decision-making on the area under forest management, the propensity matching method is adopted to control the selective bias. After matching, the treatment and control groups passed the balance test on several criteria. The results show that the increase of forest land area does indeed promote the enthusiasm of farmers in forest management, but this is a slow dynamic adjustment process. Among them, the intensity of capital investment gradually showed a significant increase after 2010, with a growth rate of about 25% to 27%. In 2013, it further strengthened to 28% to 34%. The increase in the intensity of capital investment is mainly caused by the increase of investment in fertilizers and pesticides, and the intensity of investment in seedlings has not significantly improved. This difference shows that a new round of forest reform to improve the management of farmers and forest management enthusiasm, but the limited impact on afforestation behavior. At the same time, farmers did not significantly increase their labor input because of the increase of forest land area. The substitution of labor for capital by such capital is closely related to the non-agricultural employment of farmers.