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分别给出了将ＡＲＭＡＸ模型及多层ＢＰ网络应用于流量演算中模型参数确定的方法；提出了一种可进行误差实时校正的改进ＡＲＭＡＸ模型，并认为该模型实质上是一种特殊的两层ＢＰ网络；用一个实际算例将改进ＡＲＭＡＸ模型与多层ＢＰ网络两种方法作了对比分析．
The method of applying ARMAX model and multi-layer BP network to the determination of model parameters in the flow calculation is given separately. An improved ARMAX model which can correct the error in real time is proposed. The model is considered as a special two- BP network. An actual example is used to compare and analyze the improved ARMAX model and multi-layer BP network.