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走势判断:今年下半年经济恢复的动量将明显减弱。上半年不乐观,下半年不悲观。2010年国内外经济的不确定性都比较大,因此政策层面投鼠忌器,会对政策的制定和操作抱有较高的警惕性。从这个角度来看,今年宏观调控政策的摇摆可能较大。站在现在来看,一种可能的结果是:一季度是政策的紧缩期,二季度是政策的观察期
Judging the trend: the momentum of economic recovery in the second half of this year will be significantly weakened. Not optimistic in the first half, not pessimistic in the second half. In 2010, the uncertainty of the economy both at home and abroad is relatively large. Therefore, policy-makers should not be concerned about the policy formulation and operation and have a high degree of vigilance. From this perspective, this year’s macro-control policy may swing more. For now, one possible result is that the first quarter is the policy’s deflation period and the second quarter is the policy’s observation period