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一、利用景气指数方法对１９９９年宏观经济走势进行分析和预测 我们选择了工业总产值、社会商品零售总额、狭义货币供应量Ｍ１、银行工资性现金支出、进出口总额 ５个一致指标的增长率序列构成了一致合成指数（基年取为 １９９１年，消除季节因素和不规则因素），数据期间是 ?
I. Analysis and Forecast of the Macroeconomic Trend in 1999 by Using the Boom Index Method We chose the growth rates of total industrial output value, total retail sales of social products, narrow money supply M1, cash payroll expenses of banks, and the five consistent indicators of total import and export The sequence constitutes a consistent composite index (taking base year as 1991, eliminating seasonal and irregular factors) during the data period?