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本文从私人部门、公共部门与对外部门的角度梳理开放经济体面临的系统性风险,指出私人部门的金融脆弱性、公共部门债务高企与对外部门面临的国际收支冲击,是开放经济体面临的三类最重要风险。通过对最新理论与实证研究的梳理,本文认为,金融机构脆弱性、私人部门杠杆率与金融市场脆弱性构成了私人部门的金融脆弱性;公共部门债务危机、政府救助导致的债务转移以及主权信用评级下调会造成公共部门债务风险;国际收支失衡、短期资本流动、货币政策溢出效应、货币危机和银行危机的联动会产生对国际收支的)中击,从而引发系统性风险。此外,本文还指出不同部门的金融脆弱性会相互传导,不同经济体面临的系统性风险的排列组合不同,这带来了金融危机不同的表现形式、传导顺序与影响大小。
This paper examines the systemic risks faced by the open economies from the perspective of the private sector, public sector and external sector. It points out that the financial vulnerability of the private sector, the high level of public sector debt and the balance of payments impact on the external sector are facing the open economies Three types of the most important risk. Through the combing of the latest theoretical and empirical research, this paper argues that the vulnerability of financial institutions, private sector leverage and financial market fragility constitute the financial fragility of the private sector; the public sector debt crisis, government debt relief and sovereign credit The downgrade will result in a public sector debt risk. Systematic risk will be triggered by the linkage of the balance of payments imbalance, short-term capital flows, the spillover effect of monetary policy, the currency crisis and the banking crisis, which will result in a balance of payments. In addition, this article also points out that the financial fragility of different departments will be transmitted to each other, and the arrangement and arrangement of the systemic risks faced by different economies are different. This brings about different manifestations, conduction order and impact of the financial crisis.