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本文针对岩溶水系统的时变特性，通过引入“时变指标序列”和“时变因素”的概念，改进传统的线性时不变模型，提出一种非线性时变模型。理论分析和实际应用表明，模型拟合精度明显提高，更好地刻画了实际系统的结构和输入输出行为。模型中时变因素序列Ｇ（ｔ）有助于分析系统时变的机制和过程。
Aiming at the time-varying characteristics of karst water system, this paper proposes a nonlinear time-varying model by introducing the concept of “time-varying index sequence” and “time-varying factor” to improve the traditional linear time-invariant model. Theoretical analysis and practical application show that the fitting accuracy of the model is obviously improved, and the actual system structure and input-output behaviors are better described. The time-varying sequence G (t) in the model helps to analyze the time-varying mechanism and process of the system.