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[目的]探讨启东市1972~2011年胃癌发病率变化趋势。[方法]基于启东市1972~2011年癌症发病登记数据库,对胃癌发病率作性别、年龄别、时间趋势分析,计算指标包括粗发病率、中国人口标化率(中标率)、世界人口标化率(世标率)、35~64岁截缩率、0~74岁累积率、累积风险、变化百分比(PC)及年均变化百分比(APC)等。[结果]1972~2011年启东胃癌发病15 401例(男性9804例,女性5597例),粗发病率为34.26/10万,占全部癌症发病的16.60%,位居癌症发病第2位。中标率和世标率分别为16.25/10万和25.59/10万;35~64岁截缩发病率为40.03/10万;0~74岁累积发病率为3.15%,累积风险为3.10%。40年间胃癌发病的粗率、中标率和世标率的变化百分比(PC)分别为+21.90%、-55.32%与-51.20%,年均变化百分比(APC)分别为+0.49%、-2.12%、-2.06%。各时期胃癌发病率显示25~74岁各年龄组的发病率有下降趋势。年龄—出生队列方法分析显示,25~79岁各年龄组出生队列发病率有下降趋势。[结论]启东胃癌40年粗发病率总体维持在较高水平,但标化发病率已呈下降趋势。启东人群中胃癌的进一步下降,是可以预期的。
[Objective] To investigate the change trend of gastric cancer incidence in Qidong from 1972 to 2011. [Methods] Based on the database of cancer incidence registration from 1972 to 2011 in Qidong, the incidence of gastric cancer was analyzed by gender, age and time trend. The calculated indexes included crude incidence rate, Chinese population standardization rate (successful rate), world population standardization (World standard rate), 35-64 years of age shrinkage rate, 0-74 years of cumulative rate, cumulative risk, percentage change (PC) and average annual percentage change (APC). [Results] The incidence of gastric cancer in Qidong from 1972 to 2011 was 15 401 (9804 males and 5597 females). The crude incidence was 34.26 / 100 000, accounting for 16.60% of all cancers, ranking the second in the incidence of cancer. The winning rates and the world standard rates were 16.25 / 100,000 and 25.59 / 100,000, respectively; the incidence of truncation was 40.03 / 100,000 in 35-64 years old and 3.15% in 0-74 years, with a cumulative risk of 3.10%. The percent change of the crude rate, the successful rate and the world standard rate of gastric cancer in the past 40 years were +21.90%, -55.32% and -51.20%, and the annual average percentage of change (APC) was +0.49% and -2.12%, respectively. -2.06%. The incidence of gastric cancer in each period shows that the incidence of 25 to 74 age groups in all age groups have a downward trend. Age-birth cohort analysis showed that the incidence of birth cohorts in all age groups of 25-79 years had a declining trend. [Conclusion] The crude incidence rate of gastric cancer in Qidong maintained at a relatively high level for 40 years, but the incidence of standardization has been declining. The further decline of gastric cancer in the Qidong population is to be expected.