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产出缺口、潜在经济增长率等变量是各国政府制定宏观经济政策的重要依据。本文运用HP滤波法估算了中国、美国、日本的潜在产出、产出缺口,并由此算出了三国的潜在经济增长率,发现中国的潜在产出低于美国和日本,但产出缺口波动幅度要小于两国,而且潜在增长率要高于美国和日本,说明中国经济还有很大的发展空间。
The output gap, the potential economic growth rate and other variables are the important bases for the governments of all countries to formulate the macroeconomic policies. This paper uses HP filter method to estimate potential output and output gap in China, the United States and Japan, and calculates the potential economic growth rate of the three countries, finds that the potential output of China is lower than that of the United States and Japan, but the output gap fluctuates The magnitude is smaller than that of the two countries, and the potential growth rate is higher than that of the United States and Japan, indicating that there is still much room for growth in the Chinese economy.