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文章基于联立方程组模型的情景模拟方法,运用2005-2012年中国省际面板数据,实证分析了农业保险对中国农业面源污染的影响。研究表明:(1)中国农业保险促进了农业规模发展与农业技术进步,降低了农业种植业比重;农业规模扩大加剧了农业面源污染,而农业种植业比重下降与农业技术进步缓解了农业面源污染。综合来看,农业保险影响农业环境的机制在于,规模效应加剧了农业面源污染,结构效应与技术效应减轻了农业面源污染。(2)我国农业保险对农业环境质量的综合影响,受益地区往往是农业经济较为发达的地区(如华东、东北地区),受损地区往往是农业经济欠发达地区(如华南、西北地区)。(3)农业固定资产投资、农业机械化水平、农业外向程度等因素是影响农业保险环境效应的重要因素。当前,我国正处于农业面源污染防治的关键阶段,政府可以通过将农业保险保费补贴额度与农业生产技术选择相对接,积极引导、鼓励农民采用绿色农业生产技术,从而有效降低农业面源污染,推动中国农业保险向环境友好型的绿色保险转变。
Based on the scenario simulation method of Simultaneous Equations model, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of agricultural insurance on agricultural non-point source pollution in China using 2005-2008 China panel data. The results show that: (1) Agricultural insurance in China has promoted the development of agricultural scale and agricultural technology, reduced the proportion of agricultural planting; agricultural scale increased aggravating agricultural non-point source pollution, while the proportion of agricultural planting decreased and agricultural technology improved the agricultural surface Source pollution. Taken together, the mechanism of agricultural insurance affecting the agricultural environment lies in the fact that the scale effect aggravates the agricultural non-point source pollution, and the structural effect and technical effect reduce the agricultural non-point source pollution. (2) The comprehensive impact of agricultural insurance on the quality of agricultural environment in China is that the beneficiary areas tend to be areas with more developed agricultural economy (such as East China and Northeast China), and the damaged areas are often underdeveloped agricultural areas (such as South China and Northwest China). (3) Factors such as the investment in agricultural fixed assets, the level of agricultural mechanization and the degree of agricultural export are the important factors affecting the environmental effects of agricultural insurance. At present, our country is at a critical stage of prevention and control of agricultural non-point source pollution. The government can actively guide and encourage farmers to adopt green agricultural production technologies by effectively matching the allowances for agricultural insurance premiums with the selection of agricultural production technologies, so as to effectively reduce agricultural non-point source pollution, Promote China’s agricultural insurance to environment-friendly green insurance change.