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为了解决多灾种耦合的风险评估问题,应对日益严峻的防灾减灾工作,该文提出了针对自然灾害和事故灾难耦合的风险评估方法。首先,确定评估的单一事件类型,分析致灾因子的强度和概率;其次在地理信息系统平台上将灾害的空间信息进行叠加,得到叠加的危险源分布;再次,对目标区域的易损性信息进行评估;然后将叠加的危险性与易损性分级,通过重分类生成的等级值评估风险;最后根据事件链耦合关系矩阵确定危险源耦合评估结果。选取北京市为研究对象,应用该方法开发了北京市综合风险评估与区划系统。案例研究结果表明:该方法在城市多灾种耦合综合风险评估中具有可行性,有助于管理者对区域风险进行决策和控制。
In order to solve the problem of risk assessment of multi-hazard coupling and deal with the increasingly serious disaster prevention and mitigation work, this paper presents a risk assessment method for the coupling of natural disaster and accident disaster. First, the type of single event to be assessed is determined, and the strength and probability of hazard are analyzed. Secondly, the spatial information of disasters is overlaid on GIS platform to obtain the superimposed dangerous source distribution. Thirdly, the vulnerability information of target area Then, the risk and vulnerability of the superposition are graded, and the risk is evaluated by the grading values generated by the reclassification. Finally, the coupling evaluation result of the hazard source is determined according to the incident chain coupling relation matrix. This paper chooses Beijing as the research object and develops Beijing integrated risk assessment and zoning system using this method. The case study shows that this method is feasible in the comprehensive risk assessment of urban multi-hazard coupling and helps managers to make decisions and control on regional risks.