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目的 对洞庭湖区退田还湖地区中山试点血吸虫病发病进行预测 ,并为国家卫生机构合理分配卫生资源提供决策依据。方法 应用GM(1,1)模型对中山试点血吸虫病患病率建模并进行残差修正 ,进行 3年预测。结果 中山试点GM(1,1)模型平均相对误差为 13 6 1% ,模型精度为差 ;残差GM (1,1)模型平均相对误差为 4 85 % ,模型精度为优。残差修正预测模型为 ^X( 1) (k +1) =- 19 3736 4 1e-0 0 81742k+2 0 6 77187。连续 3年预测值分别为15 71% ,16 5 4 %和 17 5 3%。结论 中山试点残差GM(1,1)模型预测效果好 ;血吸虫病发病在未来 3年内有缓慢上升的趋势 ;要加强血防工作。
Objective To forecast the incidence of schistosomiasis in Zhongshan pilot area in the area of returning farmland and lake to Dongting Lake and to provide the basis for decision-making for the rational distribution of health resources by national health agencies. Methods The GM (1,1) model was used to model the prevalence of schistosomiasis in Zhongshan and its residuals were corrected for 3-year prediction. Results The average relative error of Zhongshan GM (1,1) model was 13 6 1%, and the accuracy of model was poor. The average relative error of residual GM (1,1) model was 4 85% and the accuracy of model was excellent. The residual error correction prediction model is ^ X (1) (k +1) = - 19 3736 4 1e-0 0 81742k + 2 0 6 77187. The predicted values for three consecutive years were 15 71%, 16 5 4% and 17 5 3% respectively. Conclusion The experimental results of Zhongshan pilot residual GM (1,1) model have a good prediction effect. The incidence of schistosomiasis tends to increase slowly in the next 3 years.