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依据2001～2010年我国西北苹果主产区的气象数据与苹果褐斑病(Marssonina coronaria)病害发生流行数据,构建了平均气温(T)、相对湿度(Hm)、风速(Ws)及地表温度(St)影响下苹果褐斑病的流行趋势预测模型,并利用多元回归分析方法建立了苹果褐斑病预测模型.结果表明环境因素严重影响苹果褐斑病的发生和流行,苹果褐斑病预测模型为:f(T,Hm,Ws,St)=1.317T+0.002Hm+0.047Ws+0.001St-11.885[f(T,Hm,Ws,St)为病情指数].苹果褐斑病发生的T为14℃～15℃,Hm为45%,Ws为13m/s,St为10℃.大发生条件为T为20℃～23℃,Hm在70%～90%之间,Ws为0m/s～2m/s及St为22°.
Based on the prevalence data of apple and apple brown spot (Marssonina coronaria) from 2001 to 2010 in the main producing areas of northwest apple in China, the average temperature (T), relative humidity (Hm), wind speed (Ws) and surface temperature St), and the multivariate regression analysis was used to establish the prediction model of apple leaf spot.The results showed that the environmental factors seriously affected the occurrence and prevalence of apple leaf spot, the prediction model of apple leaf spot As follows: f (T, Hm, Ws, St) = 1.317T + 0.002Hm + 0.047Ws + 0.001St-11.885 [f (T, Hm, Ws, St) is the disease index] 14 ° C ~ 15 ° C, Hm 45%, Ws 13m / s, St 10 ° C. The conditions for the occurrence of large T 20 ° C ~ 23 ° C, Hm 70% ~ 90%, Ws 0m / 2m / s and St is 22 °.