Climate change and potential distribution of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Central Iran: Horiz

来源 :亚太热带医药杂志(英文版) | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:hblhzl_18
下载到本地 , 更方便阅读
声明 : 本文档内容版权归属内容提供方 , 如果您对本文有版权争议 , 可与客服联系进行内容授权或下架
论文部分内容阅读
Objective: To investigate and predict the effects of climate change on the potential distribution of the main vector and reservoir hosts of the disease inYazd province in the future. Methods: Distribution data for vector and reservoir hosts of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Yazd province were obtained from earlier studies conducted in the area. MaxEnt ecological niche modeling was used to predict environmental suitability. BCC-CSM1-1(m) model and two climate change scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were used for horizons 2030 and 2050 climate projections. Future projections were based on data of a regional climate change model. Results: With both scenarios in 2030 and 2050, the results of jackknife test indicated that the mean temperature of wettest quarter and temperature annual range had the greatest effect on the model for the vector and the reservoir hosts, respectively. Conclusions: The climate conditions are the major determinants of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence rate in Yazd Province. These climate conditions provide favorable habitats for ease transmission of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in this endemic area. Habitats suitability for the vector and reservoir will be expanding in the coming years compared with the current conditions, such that, in horizon 2030 & 2050, the probability of the presence of the vector and reservoir within 38580 and 37949 km2, respectively, from Yazd province is above 60%. Moreover, an increase is predicted in the presence of the vector in the west parts and the reservoir in the north and central parts of the province in the future. Understanding the role of environmental and bioclimatic factors in zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis occurrence can provide a guide for policy-makers in the creation and implementation of more effective policies for prevention and control.
其他文献
AIM: To investigate the mucosal protective effect and the mechanisms of action of the anti-ulcer drug irsogladine maleate in gastric injury induced by indometha
在临床上,很多糖尿病患者虽坚持服用降糖药,但血糖控制并不理想,这是为什么呢?我们总结了8个常见错误:rn第一,不控制饮食.
AIM:To investigate a new technique of the anorectal fistula treatment with acellular extracellular matrix (AEM).METHODS: Thirty patients with anorectal fistula
目的 针对影响糖尿病患者治疗效果的相关因素进行探究.方法 随机选取200例糖尿病患者,将其分成五个大组,每大组患者再分成对照组和实验组两个小组,分别采取不同的护理方式进
溃疡性结肠炎属于中医“痢疾”“久痢”“下利”的范畴,近年来该病的发病率逐年上升,临床常见湿热内蕴、脾胃虚弱、脾肾阳虚、肝郁脾虚、阴血亏虚、气滞血瘀六型,而其中以湿
目的 探讨声带癌T1 的CO2 激光治疗与放射治疗对喉发声机能有何不同影响。方法  2 4例声带癌T1 患者 ,9例行CO2 激光治疗 ,7例放射治疗 ,8例CO2 激光与放射联合治疗。于治
期刊
糖尿病并发症就好似埋伏在身体里的“恐怖分子”,随时对机体形成了威胁.为此,我们特请刘备、诸葛亮出山,组建了“反恐队伍”,决心扫除糖尿病患者体内的“恐怖分子”,给糖尿病
目的 分析跗骨窦切口治疗合并糖尿病的跟骨骨折临床效果.方法 选取2016年2月-2018年2月我院收治的50例合并糖尿病的跟骨骨折患者为研究对象,将其随机划分为研究组与对照组.研
Objective: To obtain suitable artimisinin-based drug candidates with high antimalarial activity. Methods: Three different reaction schemes were used to synthesi