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受供求关系的影响,昆明国际花卉拍卖中心鲜切花的日交易价格波动较大,花农的收益得不到保障。因此,能够对鲜切花价格指数进行准确的短期预测对花卉种植户和批发商及时调整种植和采购计划、合理规避市场风险具有重要的意义。为此,本文以2015年6月19日至2016年6月19日期间的昆明花拍中心鲜切花价格指数为研究对象,构建ARMA-GARCH模型进行拟合和短期预测,系统分析鲜切花价格指数的波动趋势,并基于昆明花拍中心鲜切花价格指数的波动特征,提出降低鲜切花价格波动幅度、稳定鲜切花价格的建议,从而保障花农的收益。
Affected by the supply and demand, Kunming International Flower Auction Center, fresh cut flowers daily trading price fluctuations, farmer’s income can not be guaranteed. Therefore, it is of great significance for the flower growers and wholesalers to timely adjust planting and purchasing plans and reasonably avoid market risks by accurately short-term forecasting the price index of cut flowers. Therefore, this article takes the price index of fresh flower of Kunming flower-making center from June 19, 2015 to June 19, 2016 as the research object, build ARMA-GARCH model for fitting and short-term prediction, systematically analyze the price index Based on the fluctuation characteristics of the price index of fresh-cut flowers in Flower Blossom Center in Kunming, this paper puts forward the suggestion of reducing the price fluctuation of fresh cut flowers and stabilizing the price of fresh cut flowers so as to protect the income of farmers.