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今年9、10月份的经济数据公布后,一些人判断我国经济四季度该触底了。的确,PMI(制造业采购经理指数)反弹,工业速度反弹,工业利润反弹,出口反弹,财政收入也反弹了——这些都是判断经济向好的理由。事实上,中国经济还没有触底,9月份的反弹是暂时的,只表现了经济是在下行趋势中的波动。因为观察短期经济运行不仅需要短期视角,更需要长期视角。
After the economic data of September and October this year were released, some people judged that the economy of China should hit the bottom in the fourth quarter. Indeed, the rebound of the PMI (Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index), the rebound in industrial velocity, the rebound in industrial profits, the rebound in exports and the rebound in fiscal revenues - all of which are reasons for judging the economy’s turn for the better. In fact, the Chinese economy has not bottomed out. The rebound in September was temporary, showing only that the economy is fluctuating in the downward trend. Because the observation of short-term economic operation requires not only a short-term perspective, but also a long-term perspective.