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[目的]研究气候条件对马铃薯产量的影响,并建立产量预报模型,用SPSS将历年马铃薯产量资料分离成气候产量和趋势产量,并对气候产量与气象因素进行进行相关性分析。[结果]影响马铃薯产量的气象因素分为普遍性和区域性。普遍性因素包括上年秋季8～9月的水汽压或相对湿度、6月下旬～7月上旬及8月中旬降水量;区域性因素有1月降水、4月上旬～中旬的降水、5月水汽压。用逐步回归建立产量预报模型,拟合率较好。[结论]此方法计算简单、预测时效长、预测准确率较高,为做好马铃薯种植业气象服务提供了保障。
[Objective] The research aimed to study the influence of climatic conditions on potato yield, establish the yield forecast model, divide the data of potato yield from past years into the yield of climate and the yield of yield by SPSS, and analyze the correlation between climatic yield and meteorological factors. [Result] The weather factors affecting the potato yield were divided into general and regional. The prevailing factors include the vapor pressure or relative humidity from August to September last autumn, precipitation in late June to early July and mid-August, regional precipitation in January, early April to mid-May, and May Vapor pressure. With stepwise regression to establish the yield forecast model, the fitting rate is better. [Conclusion] The method was simple in calculation, long in forecasting time and high in prediction accuracy, which guaranteed the meteorological service of potato planting.