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1997年亚洲金融危机发生后,中国坚持人民币不贬值,承接了东南亚国家的加工制造能力,大量的美元因外汇盈余而输入中国,一举解决了困扰中国多年的流动性危机,庞大的制造业产能吸纳了美元的流动性,形成中国和美国经济之间的“恐怖平衡”。如今,这一“恐怖平衡”正因美国的过度投机、滥用自己的美元霸权而以次贷危机乃至经济危机的形式最终被打破。在这种情况下,中美之间的经济关系面临着再平衡的问题。与此同时,各个有影响力的地区联盟和国家为建立符合各自利益的新经济秩序展开了新一轮的博弈,其间必然伴随着利益、资本和原材料定价权等关键要素的转移。
After the Asian financial crisis in 1997, China insisted that the renminbi did not depreciate and it inherited the processing and manufacturing capabilities of Southeast Asian countries. A large amount of U.S. dollars was imported into China because of foreign exchange surpluses. It resolved the long-standing liquidity crisis that has plagued China for many years and huge manufacturing capacity was absorbed. The liquidity of the U.S. dollar forms a “terror balance” between China and the U.S. economy. Today, this “terror balance” is finally being broken in the form of a subprime mortgage crisis and even an economic crisis caused by the US’s excessive speculation and abuse of its own dollar hegemony. Under such circumstances, the economic relationship between China and the United States faces the problem of rebalancing. At the same time, various influential regional alliances and countries have embarked on a new round of game-building for the establishment of a new economic order that is in line with their respective interests, with inevitable shifts in key elements such as interest, capital, and raw material pricing rights.