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科学地评估中国发展非粮燃料乙醇减排CO2的潜力对于制定应对气候变化措施和燃料乙醇发展政策具有重要的现实意义。论文提出了基于占地属性的燃料乙醇原料划分方法,并指出低质宜耕边际性土地与农作物副产品资源可作为占地型原料的种植空间和非占地型原料的来源。随后,构建了燃料乙醇替代的CO2减排潜力的评估模型,并对2015年和2030年中国发展非粮乙醇的减排潜力进行了评估。评估结果表明,在2015和2030年我国非粮燃料乙醇可产生1 094.7×104t和4 902.7×104t的CO2减排潜力,且形成以非占地型原料乙醇为主的减排结构。从减排潜力空间分布上看,我国在2015年和2030年将分别呈现出以微度、低度减排区为主和极高、高度减排区为主、“∏”型的空间结构。
Scientifically assessing the potential of developing non-food fuel ethanol to reduce CO2 emissions in China is of great practical significance in formulating policies to combat climate change and fuel ethanol development. The paper puts forward a method of dividing raw materials of fuel ethanol based on land occupation and points out that the marginal land and crop by-products resources of low-quality tillage can be used as the source of planting space and non-land-based raw materials of land-based raw materials. Subsequently, an assessment model of the potential for CO2 reduction of fuel ethanol alternative was constructed and the potential for reducing non-food ethanol emissions in 2015 and 2030 in China was assessed. The assessment results show that in 2015 and 2030, China’s non-grain fuel ethanol can generate emission reduction potential of 1 094.7 × 104t and 4 902.7 × 104t, and form an emission reduction structure mainly based on non-land-based feedstock ethanol. From the perspective of the spatial distribution of emission reduction potential, China will present space dominated by micro-degree and low-degree emission reduction zones and high and highly emission-reduction zones in 2015 and 2030, respectively, with “Π ” type of space structure.