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目的探讨大气表观温度与北京市某区居民全死因死亡之间的相关性。方法收集2004—2008年北京市某区居民日全死因死亡人数和该地区日均气温、相对湿度和风速的数据以及该城区相应的PM10、SO2和NO2日均浓度的时间序列数据。采用时间序列分析方法,利用立方平滑样条函数,将根据气温和相对湿度计算出的大气表观温度、风速以及作为潜在混杂因素的PM10、SO2和NO2日均浓度引入,同北京市某区居民日全死因死亡人数间建立Poisson广义相加模型。根据AIC最小的原则,选择最终进入模型的变量,并确定其立方平滑样条函数自由度取值。结果北京市某区日均表观温度与全死因死亡人次间存在负相关关系(P<0.01);日平均表观温度与日最高表观温度相比,日最高表观温度的RR值较大;在对全死因死亡人群男女分层结果显示,日均表观温度、日最高表观温度为男性全死因死亡的保护因素,滞后天数为3 d时到最大效应,而日平均表观温度、日最高表观温度及日最低表观温度均为女性全死因死亡的危险因素,滞后天数为1 d时达到最大效应。结论大气表观温度与暴露人群全死因死亡有相关,夏季日均表观温度增高可使女性暴露人群全死因死亡增加。
Objective To explore the correlation between the apparent air temperature and the death of all-cause residents in a district of Beijing. Methods The data of all-cause deaths, daily average temperature, relative humidity and wind speed in a certain area of Beijing from 2004 to 2008 were collected and the corresponding daily mean concentrations of PM10, SO2 and NO2 were collected. Using time-series analysis method, using the cubic smooth spline function, the atmospheric apparent temperature, wind speed and the daily average concentration of PM10, SO2 and NO2, which are potential confounders, are calculated according to the temperature and relative humidity, Poisson’s generalized additive model was established between the deaths of all causes of death. According to the minimum principle of AIC, the variables that finally enter the model are selected, and the degrees of freedom of the cubic smooth spline function are determined. Results There was a negative correlation between daily average apparent temperature in a certain area of Beijing and all-cause mortality (P <0.01). Compared with the highest daily apparent temperature, daily average apparent temperature had a higher RR The results of stratification between male and female showed that the daily average apparent temperature and daily maximum apparent temperature were the protective factors for all-cause mortality in all-cause deaths, with the maximum effect after lagged days of 3 days. The average daily apparent temperature, The highest daily apparent daily temperature and daily minimum apparent temperature are the risk factors of all-cause mortality in women, and the maximum effect is achieved when the number of lagging days is 1 d. Conclusion The apparent temperature of the atmosphere is related to the death of all-cause death in the exposed population. The increase of apparent daily temperature in summer can increase the death rate of all-cause death in the female population.