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基于1986,1995,2000和2010年土地利用数据和In VEST模型,研究近25年来黑河中游的土地利用变化规律,模拟不同土地利用格局下的流域产流量,并采用多元线性回归模型分析不同用地类型对流域产流的影响。结果表明:1)黑河中游主要用地类型为未利用地、草地和耕地,2000年后土地利用结构变化较大,大量耕地转化为建设用地;2)经过反复检验,发现当Z=7.3时,模拟产流量与自然径流量最为接近,从子流域来看,产流深度呈现从东南部到西北部逐渐递减的空间分布规律;3)林地面积增加抑制流域产流,而草地、建设用地和未利用地会促进产流,耕地在不同的利用方式下会产生正负不同的水文效应。研究结果可为实现绿洲水土资源平衡提供借鉴。
Based on the land use data and In VEST model of 1986, 1995, 2000 and 2010, the land use change regularities in the middle reaches of the Heihe River during the past 25 years were studied to simulate the runoff yield under different land use patterns. Multivariate linear regression models were used to analyze the land use types Impact on basin runoff. The results showed as follows: 1) The main types of land used in the middle reaches of the Heihe River were unused land, grassland and cultivated land. After 2000, the land use structure changed greatly and a large amount of cultivated land was converted into construction land. 2) After repeated tests, it was found that when Z = 7.3, The runoff yield is the closest to natural runoff. From the perspective of sub-catchment, the runoff depth shows a gradual decreasing spatial distribution pattern from southeast to northwest. 3) The increase of forest land area suppresses the runoff in the catchment, while the grassland, construction land and unutilized Land will promote the flow of arable land, and different cultivated land will produce different positive and negative hydrological effects. The results of this study can provide reference for the balance of water and land resources in oasis.