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近年来中国经济持续出现内部失衡和外部失衡,与人民币汇率波动和持续多年的财政赤字不无关系。本文运用向量自回归模型(VAR)实证考察了人民币汇率升值与财政赤字规模的变动对中国经济增长的影响,以及它们之间的相互作用机理和影响途径。基于实证分析的结论,本文认为改变外向型导向的财政支出结构可以有效缓解当前国际收支顺差对人民币升值的压力,另一方面,人民币币值上升不仅不会逆转我国经济长期增长的态势,反而可以提高国内货币政策对宏观经济调控的敏捷性和有效性,并有利于我国经济的长期增长。
In recent years, there have been continuous internal and external imbalances in the Chinese economy, which are not unrelated to the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate and the fiscal deficit that has lasted for many years. In this paper, we use the vector autoregressive model (VAR) to empirically examine the impact of the RMB exchange rate appreciation and the size of the fiscal deficit on China’s economic growth, as well as their interaction mechanisms and ways of influence. Based on the conclusion of empirical analysis, this paper argues that the change of export-oriented fiscal expenditure structure can effectively alleviate the pressure of the present balance of payments surplus on RMB appreciation. On the other hand, the rise of RMB not only will not reverse the long-term economic growth in our country, Improve the agility and effectiveness of the domestic monetary policy in macroeconomic regulation and control, and be conducive to the long-term economic growth in our country.