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春节后华北地区长达3个多月的旱情搅动国内农产品市场,在小麦减产的担忧下原本供求预期偏紧的玉米市场也开始了破冰之旅。由于国内产区的可销售玉米库存开始下降,因此春节前一直被国家政策所压制的玉米市场逐步开始升温。由于鱼粉和豆粕都是国际市场主导的,鱼粉的资源性凸显维持强势,而豆粕方面遇到短期供给压力而继续震荡整理,因此蛋白原料等待上行的时机成熟。不过由于国内通胀的压力依然存在,国家加息紧缩的政策仍将持续,因此饲料原料市场同涨同跌的不稳定状态仍将持续,在对玉米、鱼粉原料等看涨的同时,仍需关注宏观政策的走向。
After the Spring Festival, the drought in North China, which lasted more than three months, stirred up the domestic agricultural market. Under the worry of the wheat cut, the maize market, which originally had tight supply and demand, started to break the ice. Corn stocks, which have been suppressed by national policies until the Spring Festival, have been gradually warming up as the marketable maize stocks in domestic production began to decline. As both fishmeal and soybean meal are dominated by the international market, the resource of fishmeal remains strong. However, short-term supply pressures on soybean meal continue to shock the market. Therefore, the time is ripe for the protein feedstock to wait for its upward move. However, due to the pressure of domestic inflation still exists, the policy of raising interest rates and tightening of the country will continue. As a result, the unstable raw material feedstock market will continue to rise and fall. As corn and fishmeal raw materials are bullish, they still need to pay attention to the macro Policy direction.