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城市化水平与经济增长之间存在着密切关系。本文以丽江市1990～2006年统计数据为依据,建立了丽江市城市化模型。该模型符合城市化与经济增长的一般模型,呈现对数关系。应用该模型预测了未来丽江市的城市化水平以及相应的人均GDP,2010年、2020年城市化率分别为15.57%和18.29%。从特殊的自然地理背景、多民族的特点以及隐性城市化现象等方面,解释了丽江市城市化率较低的原因,指出丽江市城市化并不符合一般的周一星模型,而是有其自身发展的规律,为该地区制订城市化与经济之间的协调发展策略提供了科学依据。
There is a close relationship between urbanization and economic growth. Based on the statistical data from 1990 to 2006 in Lijiang City, this paper established the urbanization model of Lijiang City. The model is consistent with the general model of urbanization and economic growth, showing a logarithmic relationship. This model is used to predict the urbanization level of Lijiang in the future and the corresponding per capita GDP. The urbanization rates in 2010 and 2020 are 15.57% and 18.29% respectively. The reason of low urbanization rate in Lijiang is explained from the special natural geographical background, the characteristics of multi-nationality and the phenomenon of implicit urbanization. It is pointed out that the urbanization of Lijiang City does not conform to the general model of the week star but has its own The law of its own development provides a scientific basis for the formulation of a coordinated development strategy between urbanization and economy in the region.