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近 10年来 ,由人为因素与自然过程引起的气候波动与变化 ,已成为当今科技界最前沿的问题。本项目是研究保加利亚 2 0世纪以来的气候变化 ,确认其对农业的全面影响。 2 0世纪保加利亚年平均气温没有显著变化。但自 2 0世纪 70年代起 ,保加利亚夏半年的降水量有所下降。已建成保加利亚作物产量与降水、温度的多元统计回归模型。利用全球大气环流模型 ( GCM)的输出产品 ,创建了不同的渐变气候变化情景。利用农业技术决策支撑系统 ( DSSAT) 3.5版估算气候变化对保加利亚玉米与小麦产量的影响。在目前 CO2 浓度 ( 330 PPM)不变的条件下 ,由于气温升高与降水减少的影响 ,作物生长季将缩短 ,GCM情景计算表明冬小麦及玉米产量下降 ,尤其是玉米产量下降。若考虑 CO2 浓度增加的直接效应 ,所有的 GCM情景都反映出冬小麦将增产。为了减轻保加利亚未来气候变化对玉米产量的潜在影响 ,适应气候未来变化的对策可包括调整播期与选择适宜的杂交品种。
In the past 10 years, the climate fluctuations and changes caused by human factors and natural processes have become the most cutting-edge issues in science and technology today. This project examines the climate change in Bulgaria since the 20th century and confirms its full impact on agriculture. The annual average temperature in Bulgaria in 2000 has not changed significantly. However, since the 1970s, Bulgaria’s precipitation has decreased in the summer half year. Multivariate regression model of crop yield, precipitation and temperature in Bulgaria has been established. Using the output of the Global Atmospheric Circulation Model (GCM), different climate change scenarios have been created. Use of Agricultural Technology Decision Support System (DSSAT) version 3.5 to estimate the impact of climate change on the production of Bulgarian corn and wheat. Under the current unchanged CO2 concentration (330 PPM), crop growth season will be shortened due to the effects of rising temperature and decreasing precipitation. The GCM scenario shows a decrease in winter wheat and maize yield, especially in maize. Considering the direct effect of increased CO2 concentration, all GCM scenarios reflect the increase in winter wheat production. To mitigate the potential impact of future climate change on maize production in Bulgaria, countermeasures to adapt to future climate changes may include adjusting sowing dates and selecting the appropriate hybrids.