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农户收入水平因市场波动和生产条件的限制而存在不稳定因素。同时,中国农村食物消费市场发育也不完善,而当前中国农村家庭的食物消费却在市场化的进程中变得日益商品化和货币化。因此,在食物价格不断上涨的背景下,需要加强对农村贫困家庭营养脆弱性的关注。本文利用CHNS(中国健康与营养调查)2006年和2009年的数据,通过FGLS(广义最小二乘法)模型估计了样本家庭未来营养摄入的事前分布均值和方差。分析认为,家庭收入水平、市场条件等因素是影响农村家庭营养脆弱程度的重要因素。同时本文还在模型分析的基础上测度了中国农村家庭的营养脆弱性,结果表明,营养脆弱性测度可以准确预测三分之二的家庭的未来营养状况。
Farmers’ income levels are subject to instability due to market fluctuations and restrictions on production conditions. At the same time, the development of the rural food consumption market in China is also not perfect. However, the food consumption of rural families in China has become increasingly commercialized and monetized in the process of marketization. Therefore, in the context of rising food prices, there is a need to increase attention to the nutritional vulnerability of rural poor households. Using the data of CHNS (China Health and Nutrition Surveys) in 2006 and 2009, this paper estimates the mean and variance of ex ante distribution of future nutritional intake of sample households by FGLS (Generalized Least Squares) model. Analysis, the family income level, market conditions and other factors is an important factor affecting the nutritional vulnerability of rural families. At the same time, this paper also measures the nutritional vulnerability of rural households in China based on the model analysis. The results show that the nutrition vulnerability measure accurately predicts the future nutritional status of two thirds of the households.