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密云水库的枯季来水量预报工作,多年来一直采用南京水文水资源研究所1989年开发的软件完成。随着时间的推移和产汇流条件的改变,软件模型逐渐无法适应密云水库的实际情况,预报结果难以达到要求。为此根据密云水库流域的下垫面特点和枯季产汇流机制,总结出一套枯季来水量预报方法,经过2004-2005年的枯季实践检验,预报结果可达到目前《水文情报预报规范》中发布正式预报的精度标准,说明这套预报方法是适合密云水库特点的一套可行方法。
Miyun Reservoir dry season water forecasting work over the years has been using the Nanjing Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources developed in 1989 to complete the software. With the passage of time and the change of production and inflow conditions, the software model can not adapt to the actual conditions of Miyun Reservoir gradually, and the forecast results can hardly meet the requirements. According to the characteristics of the underlying surface of Miyun Reservoir and the confluence mechanism of dry season, a set of forecasting methods of inflow in dry season are summarized. After the dry season in 2004-2005, the forecast results can reach the current “hydrological forecasting norms ”Published in the official forecast accuracy standards, indicating that this set of forecasting method is a set of feasible methods for the characteristics of Miyun Reservoir.