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近日,中国人民银行行长周小川在央行年度会议上提出,今年我国将继续执行稳健的货币政策。而财政部也在之前明确今年亦将执行积极的财政政策。但两项政策在今年的继续,却不得不面对一个重大的问题——财政风险的压力。1998年以来的积极财政政策,对我国国民经济的增长起到了关键的作用。但随着此项政策的持续执行,财政风险的问题越来越多地引起社会各界的关注。去年以来,关于积极财政政策是否应淡出问题,就一直是全社会普遍争论的话题。按照2002年初的财政预算,我国政府财政赤字达到3098亿元,而国债余额相应将达到18700亿元。2002年我国GDP增长8％。那么,我国财政赤字占GDP的比重达到2.99％,国债余额占GDP的比重达到18.05％,仍然处于国际公认安全线之内。
Recently, the People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan proposed at the annual meeting of the central bank that this year China will continue to implement a prudent monetary policy. However, the Ministry of Finance also explicitly stated that it will implement a proactive fiscal policy this year. However, the continuation of the two policies this year has yet to confront a major issue - the pressure of fiscal risks. The proactive fiscal policy since 1998 has played a key role in the growth of our national economy. However, with the continuous implementation of this policy, the issue of financial risk has drawn more and more attention from all sectors of society. Since last year, whether or not active fiscal policy should be faded out has been a topic of widespread debate in the whole society. According to the budget of early 2002, the fiscal deficit of our government reached 309.8 billion yuan, while the balance of government bonds will reach 1,880 billion yuan. In 2002, China’s GDP grew by 8%. Then, China’s fiscal deficit as a share of GDP reached 2.99%, the balance of national debt accounted for 18.05% of GDP, is still within the internationally recognized safety line.