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云南是中国地震活动最为频繁的省份之一。在１９９５ 年７ 月至１９９６ 年２ 月的７ 个月期间， 接连发生了３ 次大地震， 它们是：１９９５ 年７ 月１２ 日孟连地震（Ｍ≡７－３） ；１９９５ 年１０ 月２４ 日武定地震（Ｍ≡６－５） ； 和１９９６ 年２ 月３ 日丽江地震（Ｍ≡７－０） 。本文在对上述３ 次地震作简单介绍的同时， 将重点强调孟连地震的短临预报及社会响应能力。孟连地震是一次前震—主震—余震型地震， 发震时刻为１９９５ 年７ 月１２ 日０５ 时４６分４１－２ 秒； 震中为北纬２２－０°、东经９９－３°。自１９９４ 年１１ 月起， 鉴于对监测到的地震活动性及前兆异常的分析研究结果， 作了中期（ ＞１ 年） 、短期（３ 个月） 及临震（ 主震前一天） 预报。对应上述预报， 发生了３ 次Ｍ５－０ 地震、一次Ｍ＞６－０ 地震和Ｍ７－３ 主震。地震部门提供的预报意见是各级政府部门作出防震减灾决策的主要依据。此外， 对３ 次强余震（Ｍ＝５－１，５－０ 和５－０） 的预报， 稳定了震区的生产与生活。早在１９８６ 年， 云南省地震局颁布了“云南省地震危险性趋势预测及防震抗震技术对策”。它阐明了一旦发生地震全社会应采取的对策步骤， 以及在短临预报发布后可能的发震区应?
Yunnan is one of the provinces where earthquakes occur most frequently in China. Three large earthquakes occurred in succession during the seven-month period from July 1995 to February 1996: the Menglian earthquake (M = 7-3) on July 12, 1995; the earthquake on October 24, 1995 Wuding earthquake (M ≡ 6-5); and February 3, 1996 Lijiang earthquake (M ≡ 7-0). While giving a brief introduction to the above three earthquakes, this paper will focus on the short-term prediction and social responsiveness of the Menglian earthquake. The Menglian earthquake was a foreshock-mainshock-aftershock-type earthquake with an onset time of 41-26 seconds at 05:46 on July 12, 1995; the epicenter was at 22-0 ° north latitude and 99-3 ° east longitude. Since November 1994, mid-term (> 1 year), short-term (3 months) and near-real-time forecast of the main shock have been made in view of the results of the analysis of the monitored seismicity and precursor anomalies. Corresponding to the above forecast, three M5-0 earthquakes, one M> 6-0 earthquake and M7-3 main shock occurred. The forecast opinions provided by the earthquake departments are the main basis for making decisions on earthquake prevention and disaster reduction by government departments at all levels. In addition, the forecast of three strong aftershocks (M = 5-1, 5-0 and 5-0) stabilized the production and life of the earthquake zone. As early as 1986, the Seismological Bureau of Yunnan Province promulgated the “Earthquake Danger Trend Forecast in Yunnan Province and Seismic and Seismic Technology Countermeasures”. It clarifies the steps that the society should take in the event of an earthquake and the possible seismogenic zone after the issuance of a short-term forecast.