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利用海南省18个站点1998—2011年的逐日气象资料、冬种瓜菜的产量和面积资料,基于3—4月降水量、无雨日数、连续无雨日数、最长连续无雨日数对春季干旱的综合影响,采用主成分分析法构建春季干旱综合指数,建立春季干旱等级指标。通过减产率分离得到春季干旱导致的瓜菜(西瓜Citrullus lanatus、豇豆Vigna unguiculata、辣椒Capsicum annuum、丝瓜Luffa cylindrica)灾损,综合考虑致灾、孕灾、灾损、防灾能力进行瓜菜春季干旱灾害的综合风险分析与区划。结果表明:瓜菜春季干旱致灾风险指数呈现东西高、中间低的分布,且不同春季干旱等级风险概率分布存在着明显的地区差异;春季干旱孕灾环境指数以海南中部的五指山为中心向四周逐渐减小;4种瓜菜的灾损风险和防灾能力分布地域差异显著;集成致灾、孕灾、灾损、防灾能力得到的干旱综合风险,4种瓜菜的高风险区均主要分布在海南的西部和南部部分地区,低风险区在海南的中部和东部部分地区。
Based on the daily meteorological data of 18 sites in Hainan Province from 1998 to 2011 and the yield and area data of winter melon varieties, the average monthly rainfalls of spring and autumn were calculated based on the monthly precipitation, rainy days, continuous rainy days, The comprehensive effects of drought, the use of principal component analysis to build the spring drought index, the establishment of spring drought index. The spring drought-induced melon (watermelon Citrullus lanatus, Vigna unguiculata, Capsicum annuum, Luffa cylindrica) caused by spring drought were separated by yield reduction, and the spring, drought and drought Comprehensive risk analysis and zoning of disasters. The results showed that the risk index of drought disaster in spring vegetables was higher than in the middle and low in the middle, and there was a clear regional difference in the probability distribution of risks of spring drought in spring. The drought disaster index in spring centered on Wuzhishan of central Hainan And the regional distribution of the disaster risk and disaster prevention ability of the four kinds of melons is significant. The comprehensive risk of drought caused by integrated disaster, malady, disaster and disaster prevention ability and the high risk area of four kinds of melon are all mainly Distributed in parts of western and southern Hainan, low-risk areas in central and eastern Hainan part of the region.