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分析了影响2012年玉米国际、国内价格的多种因素,全球范围内以缓解玉米价格上涨的因素为主,包括玉米及粮食整体供应量增加、全球经济增速放缓、各国用紧缩政策控制通胀等;国内因素对玉米价格的影响较为复杂,上涨因素包括劳动力等要素成本上升的推动作用以及工业和饲料粮对玉米的需求增长等,下降因素包括国内玉米产量的持续增加、农民生产积极性受预期利润压缩影响而降低等。预计2012年中国玉米平均价格仍将高于2011年,但涨幅将显著低于2011年同期水平。另外,值得注意的是影响玉米价格走势的关键因素还包括国际石油价格变化、美国生物能源政策的变化及饲料用小麦对玉米的替代效应等。
The factors influencing the international and domestic prices of maize in 2012 are analyzed. The main factors contributing to the increase in maize prices around the world include the increase of the overall supply of corn and grain, the slowdown of global economic growth, and the tightening of inflation by countries to control inflation Etc. The domestic factors have a more complicated impact on the price of corn. The rising factors include the impetus of rising labor costs and other factors as well as the growth of the demand for corn from industrial and feed grains. The declining factors include the continuous increase of domestic corn output and the enthusiasm of farmers for production to be expected The impact of profit compression and lower. The average price of corn in China is still expected to be higher in 2012 than in 2011, but the increase will be significantly lower than the same period in 2011. In addition, it is noteworthy that the key factors that affect the price of corn also include changes in international oil prices, the changes in the U.S. bioenergy policy and the substitution effect of corn for feed on wheat.