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改革开放以来,中国经济实现了前所未有的持续高速增长,但是在经济高速发展的同时也出现了收入不均等的急剧上升。通过对我国1978年～2011年34年的时间序列进行计量分析发现,我国财政支出的增加对消费的增长没有因果关系,也就是说不存在政府支出对消费的挤出效应,而消费支出是政府财政支出的格兰杰原因,消费支出的增加对财政支出有着正向的刺激作用。前期的政府财政支出会造成下期政府财政支出的增加。
Since the reform and opening up, the Chinese economy has witnessed an unprecedented sustained and rapid growth. However, with the rapid economic development, there has also been a sharp rise in the income inequality. Through the measurement and analysis of China’s time series from 1978 to 2011, it is found that the increase of China’s fiscal expenditure has no causal relationship with the increase of consumption, that is to say there is no crowding-out effect of government expenditure on consumption while the consumption expenditure is the result of government Granger fiscal expenditure reasons, the increase in consumer spending on the fiscal spending has a positive stimulus. Pre-government spending will cause government spending next period of government spending increases.