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经济发展与城市蔓延一直是学者研究的热点,其假说大都建立在发展与保护矛盾不断激化的基础之上,论文基于国内外城市发展轨迹的判断,提出新的研究假说:经济发展与城市蔓延存在Logistic曲线关系,并选择华东地区典型城市进行实证检验。结果表明:第一,国外(区域)经济发展由快速城市化、工业化初级阶段过渡到高级或后工业化阶段进程中,对城市蔓延扩张的依赖程度逐渐减弱;第二,中国1978—2003年间经济发展与城市蔓延增长具有周期性波动特征,2003年以后两者波动出现明显脱钩或分歧;第三,实证结果显示,上海、南京、无锡和徐州的第二三产业GDP在分别达到2.91×1011、1.02×1011、4.43×1010、9.42×1010元时,城市蔓延扩张出现拐点,验证了研究假说,其规模上限分别为8.99×104、6.01×104、2.20×104、3.43×104 hm2。研究结论能够为我国城市蔓延治理和公共政策调整提供科学依据和直接参考。
Economic development and urban sprawl have always been the hot topics of scholars’ research. Most of their hypotheses are based on the intensification of contradictions between development and protection. Based on the judgment of domestic and international urban development trajectories, the paper proposes a new research hypothesis that the economic development and urban spread exist Logistic curves, and select the typical cities in eastern China for empirical test. The results show that: First, the economic development in foreign countries (regions) has changed from rapid urbanization and the transition from the initial stage of industrialization to the advanced stage or post-industrialization stage, and the dependence on the urban expansion and expansion gradually weakened; secondly, the economic development in 1978-2003 in China With the cyclical fluctuations in the growth of the city. After 2003, the two have clearly decoupled or diverged. Third, the empirical results show that the secondary industry GDP of Shanghai, Nanjing, Wuxi and Xuzhou reached 2.91 × 1011 and 1.02 × 1011,4.43 × 1010,9.42 × 1010 yuan, the urban expansion and expansion inflection point to verify the research hypothesis, the size of the upper limit were 8.99 × 104,6.01 × 104,2.20 × 104,3.43 × 104 hm2. The conclusion of the study can provide a scientific basis and direct reference for the spread control and public policy adjustment in our country.