论文部分内容阅读
本文以陕西秦巴山区为试验基地,根据区域水热条件和商品经济发展现状,选择生漆、核桃、板栗、茶叶和桔柑等商品项目,分别依据理想生产条件,确定具有明显限制意义的因子参加优选试验.由于商品基地的建设要受到自然因素集、社会技术因素集和经济因素集的限制,因此,整个优选过程包括四部分:即确定参加优选试验的候选基地,主要依据目前人类无法大规模改变的主要限制性自然因素;自然因素集分析,将待选基地与商品理想基地逐一比较,以两系统的中心距离代表其相似性,按相似程度评分;社会技术因素集分析,着重考虑商品生产的面积、劳力、产量、技术条件和历史经验,综合评分;经济因素计算分析,按1984—1986年资料计算商品生产的经济收益,以纯收益高低评分;然后综合四个优选过程,用期望值代表总评价优选结果,经过这一流程优选的商品生产基地再进行未来生态系统变化的预测,包括自然生态系统、社会生态系统和经济生态系统的变化预测.为发展秦巴山区商品生产提供一定理论依据.
Based on the regional hydrothermal conditions and the status quo of commodity economy, this paper selected commercial items such as raw lacquer, walnut, chestnut, tea and citrus, and determined the factors with obvious restriction according to the ideal production conditions Because the construction of the commodity base is limited by the set of natural factors, the set of social and technical factors and the economic factors, the whole optimization process includes four parts: that is, the candidate bases for determining the preferred experiments are mainly based on the current large-scale Change of the main natural limiting factors; natural factors set analysis, the base to be selected and the ideal base of goods one by one to the center of the distance between the two systems represent their similarities, according to the degree of similarity; social and technical factors set analysis, with emphasis on the production of goods The area, labor force, output, technical conditions and historical experience, comprehensive score; economic factor analysis and calculation, according to 1984-1986 data to calculate the economic benefits of commodity production, the net income level score; and then integrated four preferred process, with the expected value of the total Evaluation of the preferred results, after this process preferred commodity production base again Changes in ecosystem row future projections, including changes in forecasting natural ecosystems, social-ecological systems and economic and ecological systems. Provide a theoretical basis for the development of commodity production Qinling.