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利用地形变和地震资料校正一个地震不稳定模式后可以用它预报未来类似的地震。通过调整模式的参数,使理论曲线和近期观测到的不同时间的地形变资料吻合起来,然后把理论曲线外推以确定未来地震的发生时间。这里地形变指的是断层蠕变、高程和距离的变化。我们把这一预报方法应用于圣安德烈斯断层上的两段。人们对那里的地震记录进行过充分的研究而且能取得完整的大地测量数据。在帕克费尔德附近,M=5的地震大约每20年发生一次。
The use of deformation and seismic data to correct a seismic instability model can be used to predict future similar earthquakes. By adjusting the parameters of the model, the theoretical curve is consistent with the recently observed deformation data at different times. Then the theoretical curve is extrapolated to determine the time of future earthquakes. Terrain deformation here refers to the fault creep, elevation and distance changes. We apply this method of prediction to the two sections of the San Andreas fault. Earthquake records there have been thoroughly studied and complete geodetic data available. Near Parkfield, an M = 5 earthquake occurs about every 20 years.