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人均预期寿命的延长和长期的计划生育政策导致我国人口的年龄分布出现了老龄化现象,与此同时我国经济出现了增长放缓的趋势。一时间学术界普遍认为我国的人口红利正在消失,人口红利减弱时我国经济增速放缓的主要原因之一。本文从年龄分布、受教育程度和城乡人口流动三个方面研究了我国人口结构的变化,分析发现人口红利不完全等于年龄结构红利,我国人口红利主要来源于三个因素——年龄结构红利、人口质量红利和城乡人口转化红利。我国人口的年龄结构红利的确开始消失,但人口质量红利和城乡人口转化红利依然会继续存在。
The prolonged average life expectancy and the long-term policy on family planning have led to an aging phenomenon in the age distribution of our population. In the meantime, our economy has shown a tendency of slowing down. For a time academics generally believe that our country’s demographic dividend is disappearing, demographic dividend weakened when China’s economic growth slowed down one of the main reasons. This paper studies the changes of China’s population structure from three aspects: age distribution, educational level and urban-rural population migration. It is found that the demographic dividend is not exactly equal to the age structure dividend. The demographic dividend in our country comes mainly from three factors - age structure bonus, population Quality dividend and urban-rural population into bonus. The demographic dividend of the age structure of our population does start to disappear, but the mass dividend of the population and the conversion bonus of the urban and rural population will still persist.