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本文提出了基于关系网络的不确定性环境下的决策分析方法,并以三峡水利枢纽工程的投资风险分析和多方案评价为背景,建立了用于风险分析及决策的专家系统:ANALYST。我们将专家经验、判断和领域知识所反映的风险因素之间的结构关系以及优化、仿真模型的输入/输出属性表示为网络形式的逻辑结构,并且通过各风险情形的信度在网络中的传递及合成来确定工程的投资和效益在其值域上的可能性分布,并在此基础上进行多目标决策分析。
In this paper, a decision analysis method based on relational network under uncertainty environment is put forward. Based on the investment risk analysis and multi-scenario evaluation of Three Gorges Project, an expert system for risk analysis and decision-making is established: ANALYST. We represent the structural relationships and optimization of the risk factors reflected by expert experience, judgment and domain knowledge. The input / output attributes of the simulation model are represented as a logical structure of the network form and passed through the network through the reliability of each risk scenario And synthesis to determine the probability distribution of the project’s investment and benefits in its range, and based on this multi-objective decision analysis.