论文部分内容阅读
目的了解北京市2010-2015年布鲁菌病流行情况,为北京市布鲁菌病的防控提供依据。方法采用描述流行病学分析方法,对2010-2015年北京市布鲁菌病发病情况进行分析,统计病例的分布情况,采用指数模型分析方法对2010-2015年北京市报告布鲁菌病病例数进行分析,预测2016年布鲁菌病发病情况。结果 2010-2015年北京市共报告布鲁菌病病例641例,报告病例数及发病率呈逐年上升趋势;春季为发病高峰;北京郊区报告病例数较高;病例以男性居多,男女性别比为3.71∶1;病例年龄主要集中在20~69岁人群,其中以40~岁年龄组人群居多(61.00%);病例职业以农民为主。指数模型分析拟合回归方程为Y=16.405e0.448x,模型决定系数R~2=0.98,根据回归模型预测2016年北京市布鲁菌病报告病例数为378例(95%CI:240~595)。结论北京市布鲁菌病发病率逐年上升,应在高发季节加强郊区重点职业人群布鲁菌病防控知识健康教育及健康监测。
Objective To understand the prevalence of brucellosis in Beijing from 2010 to 2015 and provide evidence for the prevention and control of brucellosis in Beijing. Methods Descriptive epidemiological analysis was used to analyze the incidence of brucellosis in Beijing from 2010 to 2015 and the distribution of the cases were statistically analyzed. The number of brucellosis cases reported in 2010-2015 in Beijing was analyzed by exponential model analysis To analyze and predict the incidence of brucellosis in 2016. Results A total of 641 cases of brucellosis were reported in Beijing from 2010 to 2015. The number and incidence of reported cases showed an increasing trend year by year. The highest incidence was recorded in spring and the highest was reported in suburbs of Beijing. The majority of cases were male and the ratio of male to female was 3.71: 1. The age of the patients mainly concentrated in the population aged 20-69 years, of which the population was mostly in the age group of 40 ~ 61.00%. The cases were dominated by peasants. The regression equation of exponential model analysis was Y = 16.405e0.448x, and the coefficient of model determination was R ~ 2 = 0.98. According to the regression model, the number of reported cases of brucellosis in Beijing in 2016 was 378 (95% CI: 240-595 ). Conclusion The incidence of brucellosis in Beijing is increasing year by year. It is suggested that health education and health monitoring of brucellosis prevention and control should be strengthened in key occupational populations in suburban areas in high season.