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为解决考虑分布式电源和负荷双重不确定因素影响下有源配电网电压越限分析计算问题,实现快速在线分析,提出了一种基于随机模型节点等效、离线计算和在线分析相结合的电压越限概率计算方法.通过节点等效的方式,简化配电网络多点随机模型对单个节点电压幅值的综合影响分析,降低网络运行状态的变量表达形式.以降维后的等效随机变量为基础,选取典型离散状态,离线计算并保存典型离散状态下的电压越限概率.最后在运行中,计算实际运行状态下的各节点等效随机变量,查找离线存储的随机变量相邻值状态和计算结果,进行多维拉格朗日插值.IEEE 33节点测试系统的计算结果验证了所提方法的有效性和实用性.“,”To solve the analysis and calculation problem of voltage beyond limits under the uncertainty influence of the distributed generation and load in active distribution network,a probability calculation method of voltage beyond limits,combined off-line calculation and on-line analysis,was proposed.The node equivalent method is used to weaken the effect of multi-node stochastic power model on single node voltage amplitude,and reduce the variable dimension of network operation state.Then the typical discrete states are selected and the probability of voltage beyond limits is calculated.And the off-line calculation is completed after the related data storage.In practice operation,the equivalent stochastic variables under existing condition are obtained with node equivalent method.And the adjacent states in off-line data base are extracted to carry out multi-dimension Lagrange interpolation,so the each node probability of voltage beyond limits can be obtained in the on-line analysis process.The validity and practicability of the proposed method are verified by the comparison with the traditional stochastic load flow method in the IEEE 33 node test system.