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赣江下游尾闾河道为多级汊道进入鄱阳湖,2000年来河道枯水水位下降明显,对河道防洪、航运、取水、生态环境等带来不利影响,依据赣江下游尾闾河道实测水文资料,采用有序聚类分析、Mann-Kendall非参数检验方法分析了赣江下游尾闾外洲、南昌、昌邑、吴城、滁槎、楼前与鄱阳湖湖区都昌站的枯水位变化特性。结果表明,赣江下游尾闾各站年最低水位突变发生在2005年;赣江主支各站年最低水位呈现显著下降趋势,2005~2014年都昌站年最低水位呈显著下降趋势,外洲站年最小流量变化不大。影响枯水位下降的主要因素是河床下切,鄱阳湖湖区水位下降对赣江尾闾河道枯水位有一定影响。
The tail river channel in the lower reaches of the Ganjiang River enters Poyang Lake as a multi-level channel, and the water level of the river channel declines obviously in 2000, which adversely affects riverway flood control, shipping, water intake and ecological environment. Based on the measured hydrological data of the tail channel in the lower reaches of the Gan River, , The orderly cluster analysis and the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test were used to analyze the characteristics of low water level change in the tailings of Wahang, Nanchang, Changyi, Wucheng, Chuzhou, Dujiangye and Poyang Lake areas in the lower reaches of the Ganjiang River. . The results show that the lowest water level change in each station at the tail of the lower reaches of the Ganjiang River occurred in 2005; the lowest water level in all stations of the main branch of Ganjiang River showed a significant downward trend; the annual minimum water level of Duchang Station in 2005 and 2014 showed a significant downward trend; Station year minimum traffic changes little. The main factor that affects the decline of the low water level is undercutting of the riverbed. The water level drop in the Poyang Lake Basin has a certain influence on the dry water level of the tailrace channel in the Ganjiang River.