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北美致密油的成功商业化催生了“致密油发展将降低国际原油价格水平”的观点。笔者认为,这一观点尚值得商榷。2013年6月,美国能源信息署(EIA)发布全球主要国家和地区致密油气资源评价结果显示,美国致密油地质资源量为1363亿吨,技术可采资源量为68亿吨,居世界第二。其实,北美是全球已探明致密油资源量最丰富的地区,而美国和加拿大对致密油的勘探开发理论认识全面、技术研发相对成熟,是全球仅有的两个实现致密油商业化开采的国家。得益于此,在传统常规石油产量总体下降的背景下,美国改变了数十年石油产量下降的趋势,为“能源独立”又添一个重要砝码。
The successful commercialization of North American tight oil has given rise to the notion that the development of tight oil would reduce the international price of crude oil. In my opinion, this view is still debatable. In June 2013, the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) released the results of the evaluation of the tight oil and gas resources in major countries and regions in the world. The results show that the U.S. tight oil geological resources amount to 136.3 billion tons and the recoverable resources amount to 6.8 billion tons, ranking the second in the world . In fact, North America is the world’s most proven tight oil resources in the most abundant areas, while the United States and Canada on the theory of tight oil exploration and development of a comprehensive understanding of R & D is relatively mature, is the world’s only two to achieve the commercial exploitation of tight oil country. Thanks to this, under the background of an overall decline in conventional conventional oil production, the United States has changed its trend of declining oil production for decades and added an important weight to “energy independence.”