后危机时代我国区域出口贸易战略的调整——基于东中西三大区域面板模型的分析

• 作 者: 马淑琴 杜华俊
• 机 构: 浙江工商大学现代商贸研究中心,中国农业银行浙江省分行,
• 出 处: 经济地理
• 发表日期: 2011年04期
• 关键词: 面板 出口贸易 劳动力成本 面板模型 危机时代 后危机时代 东部地区 模型 贸易转型 三大区域

国际金融危机对我国区域出口贸易影响主要来自需求因素、供给因素与阻力因素的冲击。通过面板模型分析,结果显示外部需求锐减、劳动力成本上涨是导致我国出口贸易骤减的重要原因。从区域层面看,国外收入水平下滑、劳动力成本上涨、投资下降对东部地区出口波动影响显著,需求减少与原材料价格波动是中部地区出口受挫的主要原因,劳动力成本上涨与FDI是西部地区出口下滑的重要因素。在后危机时代,我国应加快对外贸易转型升级,优化东部地区出口贸易结构,培育中西部地区产业转移承接能力。

The impact of the international financial crisis on China’s regional export trade mainly comes from the demand factor, the supply factor and the resistance factor. Through panel model analysis, the results show that the sharp drop in external demand, rising labor costs is an important reason for China’s export trade plummeted. At the regional level, the drop in foreign income, labor costs and declining investment have a significant impact on the export fluctuations in the eastern region. Decreasing demand and fluctuations in raw material prices are the main reasons for the export setback in the central region. Labor costs and FDI are declining in the western region Key factor. In the post-crisis era, our country should speed up the transformation and upgrading of foreign trade, optimize the structure of export trade in the eastern region and cultivate the capacity of industrial transfer in the central and western regions.