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美国次级按揭问题对全球造成了深远影响。第一,美国次级按揭和优质债市场、及Alt—A市场彼此糅合在一起,因此美国面临的是全部按揭贷款的问题,可能会给美国私人部门的消费和美国经济带来中期冲击。第二,次级按揭问题的主要受损者是美国和欧洲。在美国本土受损者既包括对冲基金等覆盖富裕群体的基金,也覆盖诸多州政府的养老、医疗等公共基金;在欧洲,受损者主要是公共基金和银行业。第三,次级按揭可能导致美元利率和汇率最终双双向下、全球流动性过剩格局的逆转和欧美经济的中期调整,对我国而言,可能带来贸易受益和汇率受损的格局,贸易受益是指全球初级产品价格的回落,以及美国消费者受困房贷问题,更多地需要和容忍中国商品;汇率受损是指美国需要美元的进一步疲软和更多的资本回流,这不可避免地会加大人民币升值压力。
The U.S. subprime mortgage problem has had a profound impact on the world. First, the U.S. subprime mortgage market, the high-quality debt market, and the Alt-A market are all integrated with each other. Therefore, the United States faces the problem of full mortgage loans and may cause a medium-term impact on US private sector consumption and the U.S. economy. Second, the main victims of the subprime mortgage problem are the United States and Europe. In the United States, domestic losers include funds covering wealthy groups such as hedge funds and public funds such as pensions and medical care for many state governments. In Europe, the losers are mainly public funds and banking. Thirdly, subprime mortgages may eventually lead to a downward spiral between the U.S. dollar interest rate and the exchange rate. The reversal of the global liquidity glut and the medium-term economic restructuring in Europe and the United States may bring trade benefits and impaired exchange rates to our country. Trade benefits Refers to the drop in the prices of global primary products and the problem of the US housing customers being trapped in housing loans and more needs and tolerances for Chinese goods. The impaired exchange rate means that the United States needs further weakening of the U.S. dollar and more capital returns, which will inevitably Increase the pressure of RMB appreciation.