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基于目前大多数干旱研究偏于气象、水文和农业干旱,不能较好地反映供求矛盾,论文根据水资源供需成因的旱情评价方法,对安徽省2001—2005年的旱情时空分布进行了综合分析。研究发现,在时间上,安徽省2001和2005两年同为中度干旱,但差别甚大,平水年份的2005年的旱情等级数(Drought Index,DI)(1.485 9)却远高于偏枯的2001年(DI 0.890 9);在空间上,平水年份的2005年总体为中度干旱,但各地市区域差异明显,经济发展水平较高、用水量大的城市干旱严重(如合肥、淮南、马鞍山、芜湖市等)。淮北(DI-0.146 1,无旱)与芜湖(DI 2.466 2,严重干旱)两市水资源自然量和人口数量都相当,但旱情迥异。研究发现,造成上述旱情差异的根本原因是由于社会经济发展水平的差异而引起的水资源供需量的巨大差别。研究认为,在现代的社会背景下,单独的气象干旱、农业干旱和水文干旱已不能全面反映旱情状况,而社会经济干旱对旱情的描述更为直观,采用水资源供需平衡机制对旱情的评价也更符合实际。
Most of the studies on drought currently do not reflect the contradiction between supply and demand because of the meteorological, hydrological and agricultural aridity. Based on the drought evaluation method of water supply and demand, the paper makes a comprehensive analysis of the spatial and temporal distribution of drought in Anhui Province from 2001 to 2005. The study found that in Anhui province in 2001 and 2005, the same drought was moderate, but the difference was very large. The Drought Index (DI) in 2005 (1.485 9) was much higher than that in 2001 (DI 0.890 9). In space, the overall average dry spell in 2005 in the plain water years was moderate. However, there were obvious differences in the urban areas and high levels of economic development among the cities in various places. Drought was severe in cities with heavy water consumption (such as Hefei, Huainan, Ma’anshan, Wuhu City, etc.). The natural water resources in Huaibei (DI-0.146 1, no drought) and Wuhu (DI 2.466 2, severe drought) both have the same amount of natural resources and population, but the drought conditions are quite different. The study found that the root cause of the above drought differences is the huge difference between supply and demand of water resources due to the differences in the level of socio-economic development. The study suggests that under the modern social background, meteorological drought alone, agricultural drought and hydrological drought can not fully reflect the situation of drought, and socio-economic drought is more intuitive description of the drought, the water supply and demand balance mechanism to evaluate the drought also More realistic.