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基于中俄两国矿产资源需求的相似性和异质性,建立面板分位数模型,分析城镇化对两国铁矿石需求的影响。结果显示,城镇化等指标对中俄铁矿石消费水平的存在显著地正向影响,随着分位数的提高,城镇化的增加将导致铁矿石需求增加得更快。与2003年以前相比,2009年以后中国的铁矿石需求模式更具可持续性;在后一阶段,中国铁矿石需求结构与俄罗斯较为接近,但城镇化的作用更加突出。加强中小城镇建设,控制大城市规模、改善技术水平等途径能够控制中俄铁矿石消费量并保证两国的经济稳定发展。
Based on the similarity and heterogeneity of mineral resource demand between China and Russia, a panel quantile model was established to analyze the impact of urbanization on iron ore demand in both countries. The results show that the indicators such as urbanization have a significant positive impact on the consumption level of iron ore in China and Russia. With the increase of quantile, the increase of urbanization will lead to the demand of iron ore increasing more rapidly. Compared with before 2003, China’s iron ore demand pattern after 2009 is more sustainable; in the latter stage, the demand structure of iron ore in China is close to that of Russia, but the role of urbanization is even more prominent. Strengthening the construction of small and medium-sized cities and towns, controlling the size of major cities and improving their technological level can control the consumption of iron ore in China and Russia and ensure the steady economic development in both countries.