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本文运用可公度计算及时空对称性理论,结合蝴蝶结构图及可公度结构图对印度尼西亚地区1900年以来VEI≥4火山喷发活动进行趋势判断分析,结果显示:(1)运用三元、四元、五元可公度可知2018年印度尼西亚地区发生VEI≥4火山喷发事件的信号较强.(2)结合蝴蝶结构图及可公度结构系计算得出,2018年印度尼西亚地区发生VEI≥4火山喷发事件的随机概率为45.5%,不漏报置信水平为41.6%.(3)通过经纬度迁移分析,发现其在空间上有一定的迁移规律;纬向迁移对称轴在3.5°S左右,经向迁移对称轴在115°E左右.未来火山喷发事件有可能向东北方迁移.(4)太阳黑子数周期年份与火山喷发有很好的对应性,即火山喷发事件多发生在太阳黑子数下降阶段,在太阳黑子数上升阶段发生火山喷发事件的概率较小,在太阳黑子数峰年和谷年也会发生火山喷发事件,但发生概率明显小于太阳黑子数下降阶段的概率.
In this paper, the trend of VEI≥4 volcanic eruption events in Indonesia since 1900 was analyzed by using the theory of commensurability and time-space symmetry, combining with butterfly structure and commensurate structure chart. The results showed that: (1) Yuan and five yuan commensurability shows that there is a strong signal of VEI≥4 volcanic eruption in Indonesia in 2018. (2) According to the butterfly structure diagram and the commensurable structure department, the VEI≥4 volcanoes occurred in Indonesia in 2018 The random probability of eruption was 45.5%, and the level of omission was 41.6%. (3) Through the analysis of latitude and longitude migration, it was found that there was a certain spatial regularity of migration; the axis of symmetry of migration was about 3.5 ° S, The axis of symmetry of migration is about 115 ° E. It is possible that the future volcanic eruptions will migrate to the northeast. (4) The period of sunspot number correlates well with volcanic eruptions, that is, volcanic eruption occurred in the descending stage of sunspot number , The probability of occurrence of volcanic eruptions in the ascending stage of sunspots is small, and volcanic eruptions may occur in the peak year and valley year of the sunspot, but the probability of occurrence is obviously less than that of sunspots Probability stage.